Picks for 2/16/2012

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Gonzaga: Wins By 15+ Points @ Santa Clara (any other Result)



Analysis:
Santa Clara
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- -125
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- -54
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- -12.5
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- -10.8

Gonzaga
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- +80
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- +47
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- +8
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- +9.4 (Looks like a little jump in momentum not = to 15+ tho)



Looks like though Gonzaga has the advantage they will probably not outscore Santa Clara by 15+ however we need to look at the home/away stats first.

Note: Gonzaga has only played 7 home games


Analysis:
Santa Clara(Home)
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- -2
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- -60
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- -.02
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- -12

Gonzaga(Away)
Total Pt Differential last 7 Games- -3
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- -3
Avg Pt Differential last 7 Games- -0.42
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- -0.6


Conclusion: The game is not easy to pick and I would stay away if you had any kind of streak going.
If you ARE going to pick it then we must consider the following.
Gonzaga has not beat any team by 15+ points this season away from home.
Gonzaga beat Santa Clara @ Gonzaga by 22 points last time they played.
The pt differentials do not seem to change much for Santa Clara wether they are home or away.

All this being said Using the formula I have been I would pick Santa Clara to lose by 7 - 10 points. Gonzaga just is not carrying enough momentum on the road for me to pick them confidently.

Great write-up Ant!

My take on NCB (#17 Wisconsin @ #8 Michigan State): Which player will SCORE MORE POINTS in the 1st Half? Typically people see these and their first, and sometimes final, thought/decision is to go with the tie and call it a day. Don't get me wrong that is the right pick a lot of the time. Here we go: I took a look at the last 5 road first half points for Taylor as well as the last 5 home first half points for Green. Taylor recently on the road is averaging 5.6 points per first half. Green recently at home is averaging 7.6 points per first half. The last time these two played, at Wisconsin, each player put up 6 points in the first half, this game was played on January 3rd and if you know me you know I do not focus that far back for college basketball. I am going to go with Green to win this prop. I am feeling fairly comfortable with that pick with the two additional points my research worked out to. Good Luck!