Picks for 2/15/2012

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Alright guys the best part about not being able to sleep at night is I get to type up some write ups to hopefully help us all come to a consensus on our picks. By doing these write ups I am not trying to persuade you to change your pick but rather state some facts mixed with my opinion and overall hunch how the match will go. I hope that everyone else will chime in as well and at the end result we can come to a general consensus for the smart pick.

For the early match I will keep it short and sweet. All of the Greek soccer matches I have watched on SFTC always were snorefests. It seems to be a very defensive league with little attacking. Quite frankly I think they just lack the overall skill and scoring ability. A lot of goals I see in this league are down 10 men, PK's, or a missed assignment. And yes these can all occur but I fully expect the status quo of a low score snoorefest on this one. Levadiakos has a -15 GD and Panetolikos has a -10 GD. This shows they do not score a lot rather get scored on. If it was one of these teams against Pana or Olympiakos then I would consider the 3 goals but that is not the case in this prop. I fully expect a 1-0 game throughout with nothing more then a possible 90 + min equalizer which will not effect the prop
I will be putting my W4 on under 3 goals scored. Odds also favor this result

Now for the second game it will be a little more fun. I enjoy Champions League play because it always pits 2 different styles against each other. In this particular game we have Portuguese powerhouse Benfica against the Russian club Zenit. Quick warning it is very possible that this prop is pushed due to the expected -20 weather there. If it is played as scheduled here is what I would expect. Do not be turned off by the poor performance of Porto yesterday. Benfica is undefeated in Liga. Also they had an impressive performance at the group stage drawing Man U twice. If they can draw Man U I don't see them having a problem at Zenit. Another key to consider is that Zenit has been done league play and haven’t played in over a month. I can see them playing to the advantage of the cold and their home turf which is a distinct advantage I believe because it is so cold but I do not see an out of form team who may be out of conditioning winning against a club who hasn't lost in Champions League play or League Play yet. If they get their first lost tomorrow then I guess you can say Zenit outplayed them but I think you got to go with the odds here and expect at least a draw out of the in form away side who is playing great football. Zenit is also not without injury woes. “Zenit is also without Italy defender Domenico Criscito due to food poisoning and have injury worries over goalkeeper Vyacheslav Malafeyev, midfielder Roman Shirokov and striker Danko Lazovic.
The experienced Malafeyev, who is nursing a calf strain, has kept a clean sheet in the last three Champions League outings including a 0-0 draw at Porto in the final Group G match which secured Zenit a place in the knockout round for the first time.
My pick Benfica if the prop is of course not canceled. 2/5 to W/D


As for Aresenal/Milan I mean i don't really have anything to say besides if you were to pick go the home team Ibra should be rested because he sat out last league game due to suspension. Maybe check the rosters when they are out but I will be taking Milan only if one of my other 2 soccer picks turn Red if I nail em both which I hope so, i am staying away and hoping we can all find some solid later picks i already see a few that look enticing more to come on that but please comment on my other 2 write ups. Tbh, the Barcalona write up was my first ever soccer write up and seems to have gotten a good response and I actually research the picks myself usually as much as possible so I have no problem sharing it with you guys long you help me out on other stuff. Hope this and my write ups find you well

So I have Crunched some numbers. I have an interest in trading stock and there are many different strategies for trading stock. One of them is to capture the momentum of the stuck using 20 and 50 day moving averages.

all a 20 day moving average is, is the price for the last 20 days divided by 20.

When a 20 day moving average crosses above the 50 day it means that the momentum is going up and vice versa.

Now I have compiled the point differences between the 76ers and Magic in their last 5 and 10 games and I plan to use the same technique.


Analysis:

Magic-
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- +16
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- +24
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- +1.6
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- +4.8 (Showing a pretty good upswing)

76ers-
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- +51 (Pretty gigantic when you compare)
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- +18
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- +5.1
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- +3.6 (Showing a tiny down trend)


Now looking at total point differential the 76ers would be the CLEAR favorite but when you look at the way each team's play is trending the last 5 games the Magic have a tiny edge.

But wait Magic is playing at Home so now I am going to do the same exact thing except I will be looking at the Magic's last home games and the 76ers' last Away games


Analysis:
Magic(Home)
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- 14
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- +27 (good upswing)
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- +1.4
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- +5.4 (Again, this show that they have Momentum)

76ers(Away)
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- +74 (a big number compared to the Magic's)
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- +27
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- +7.4
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- +5.4 (On the down swing but it is tied with the magic)



Conclusion:
I would not bet a 10 streak on it but I think it would be reasonable to pick the Magic at home tonight because they are carrying the most momentum. Even though the 76ers are putting up good numbers the Magic's momentum has given them a slight edge in this game.



What do you guys think about this one?

My take on NCB (Villanova @ South Florida): How many 3-Pointers will be made in the 1st Half? I will keep this short. I took a look at the first half of the last five games each team played. I counted up each teams three pointers and averaged it out. The average number of three pointers in the first half of play for these teams is 4.6 per. I already was thinking going with the under, this simply solidifies my decision. Going with 5 threes or under for the first half. Good luck all.

My take on NCB (Villanova @ South Florida): How many POINTS will be SCORED in the 2nd Half? (No Overtime) This one is also relatively straight forward so I will keep this simple like the last. I went ahead and totalled up Villanova's last 5 road second half point totals. I then totalled up South Florida's last 5 home game second half points. The average points for the two is 72.6 points per second half. Since college basketball is so streaky I do like to focus in on the last few weeks. Obviously I will pay attention to the first half but I feel fairly confident with this research that the OVER will be achieved. As always good luck!

The Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors

Analysis:
Golden State Warriors-
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- +29
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- +12
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- +2.4
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- +2.9 (Maybe a slight down swing in momentum)

Portland Trailblazers-
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- +75
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- -21
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- +7.5
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- -4.2 (What a HUGE Drop of momentum)



Golden State has the clear advantage but still we need to look at the Home/Away averages


Analysis:
Golden State Warriors(Home)
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- +18
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- +33
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- +1.8
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- +6.6 (WOW, this is a pretty big jump of momentum in the last 5 games)

Portland Trail Blazers(Away)
Total Pt Differential last 10 Games- -1
Total Pt Differential last 5 Games- -10 (Pitiful)
Avg Pt Differential last 10 Games- -0.1
Avg pt Differential last 5 Games- -2 (Portland has had a HUGE drop of momentum)



Conclusion: Portland has a negative point differential away from home their last 10 games and their last 5. Also this negative differential has grown!

When looking at Golden States home point differential Avg it is clear that they have developed a great amount of momentum as of late.

Go for Golden State!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! I would do it no matter the streak I had.