Picks March 1st 2012

Michigan's record last 10 games- 6 - 4
last 10 away games - 4-6
Points differential last 10 games - +2.5

Illinois Record last 10 games 2 - 8 (No way I would pick any team with that record!)
Last 10 home games 6-4
Last 10 game points differential -6.7

Conclusion: I weigh recent production much more than historical homefield advantage especially when it is not astronomical. Illinois is in a SLUMP going 2-8 the last 10 games. Michigan has gone 4-1 their last 5

Michigan gets the win 4/5 confidence

San Diego's Record last 10 games 5-5
Last 10 Home Games 3 - 7
Last 10 game point differential Avg +1.2

Pepperdine's Record Last 10 Games 3-7
Last 10 Away Games 2-8
Last 10 game point differential Avg -6.4


Looking at San Diego's Recent point differential and record I would have to say that they are the better team and I will be picking them tonight. The Home/ Away records are not sufficient enough to swing my decision either way

San Diego wins 3/5 confidence

East Tennessee State has beat North Florida two times this year and has owned the head to head in recent times. They also have not lost their first game in the conference tourney since the 05-06 season.

Two concerns I see. North Florida is ranked about 20 spots ahead of them in RPI, perhaps becuase of their early tough out of conference schedule. The other concern is that East Tennessee State also beat them in two regular season games last year before losing to North Florida in the conference tourney. As the saying goes it is difficult to beat the same team three times in one year.

East Tennessee State should win, but it won't be easy.

2:30PM NCB ETSU vs UNF Recent HTH 2-0 ETSU
1/16/2012 ETSU 64 @ UNF 63
2/11/2012 UNF 50 @ ETSU 65
ETSU -3 fav on neutral court, TP 128
ETSU Buccaneers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games & 2-6 ATS in their last 8 vs. Atlantic Sun.
UNF Osprey are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games
CBS Sportsline forecasts 69-67 UNF (uncanny 76% accuracy this yr)
RealTime RPI ETSU 182 UNF 180
SOS ETSU 277 UNF 183
IMHO Coin flip – especially since ETSU was knocked out in 1st rnd 2011 tourney by team they beat 2x – u guessed it UNF ! Most experts are picking ETSU but this may be close ... ATS trends fav UNF
I am picking ETSU for W2 - it's early in month and I think they remember last year all too well - their coach should have them well prepared - but will not be surprised if UNF nips them in a close finish